Saturday, March 10, 2012

Cramer: No Greek Default

No comment necessary.  I hope you are not getting your macro advice from Jim Cramer.  Anything he says should be taken with a mountain-sized grain of salt.  This video was shot on 1-30-2012, less than six weeks later Greece has defaulted and triggered CDS.

Ray Dalio: A Thinking Man's Nouriel Roubini

I love that description of Dalio, and happen to believe it is somewhat true.  Roubini is dogmatic while Dalio is after the truth.  Enjoy the following video from the Buttonwood Conference. h/t Barry Ritholtz

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Jim Grant on Central Banking = Central Planning

A great interview here with Jim Grant.  Kelly Evans is also apparently attempting to dramatically increase the average I.Q. among CNBC talking heads.  Here Jim Grant touches on several important issues of which I will describe two here.  The first was when Jim Grant asks rhetorically, "What does the Fed have against the price mechanism?"  Bingo.  Prices, whether of bread or borrowed money (interest rates), are the signal that gives entrepreneurial capitalists the incentive to produce.  It sends a signal to the market place that there is demand that is not being met by supply or that there are significant dangers to be aware of (in the case of interest rates).  It is, along with property rights, among the most critical ingredients for a successfully functioning capitalist system.     The manipulation that the Fed is participating in is equivalent to something that if done by a businessman would be a crime.  The second issue is one that has not really hit the mainstream media yet (not really a shocker) but it involves what the ECB has done.  The ECB has been acting completely irresponsibly and recklessly.  They have essentially taken a massive amount of credit risk in their half-assed attempt to prevent a banking system implosion.  The problem is, they are levered at 36-1 and are lending against collateral that your local bank wouldn't accept.  Not to mention they own a 200 billion portfolio of now toxic sovereign bonds that are enough to wipe out their capital many times over.  The ECB is going to implode, along with the Euro, when this all falls apart.


Saturday, February 25, 2012

Peak Oil Debate at the University of Wisconsin

Please try to ignore the fact that Hofmeister is insane and try and glean the useful things that he says.  The LAST thing we need is another monopolistic/fascist system to fix our energy problem.  The free market will fix the issue or humans will learn to adapt.  We don't need more government control but we can insist on smarter regulations and rules regarding how we use hydrocarbons.  Dr. Padzek is not speaking ideologically, the way Hofmeister is, and therefore comes across as much more credible and candid about reality.